Monthly Securities Market Summary
What happened in the securities markets? – 2026 April
Monthly report on government securities markets
2026. April
Domestic government securities market
Annual inflation rose to 1.8% in March from 1.4% in February, while it increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis. At the same time,
core inflation moderated to 1.9%. Industrial production volume fell by 1.5% year-on-year in February and also declined on
a monthly basis, continuing to point to weak performance in the real economy. In April, a significant improvement in sentiment
was observed in the Hungarian bond market, supported by both a more favorable geopolitical environment and the market’s positive
assessment of the parliamentary elections. On April 8, following the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the forint
yield curve fell by 20–50 basis points, and yields generally moderated throughout the month. The market reacted favorably
to the Tisza Party’s two-thirds election victory, as it expects the new government to pursue a more stable and predictable
fiscal policy, as well as improved access to EU funds, which could substantially improve the country’s financing prospects.
In addition, expectations have grown that the adoption of the euro could be on the agenda in the medium term, which could
further reduce the country’s risk premium. The forint strengthened steadily throughout the month: the EUR/HUF exchange rate
fell from around 390 at the beginning of the month to near 365. By the end of the month, the yield curve remained flat, and
yields fell below 6% for most maturities.
At its April meeting, the Monetary Council of the MNB kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25%. The MAX index rose by 5.98% in
April, while the RMAX rose by 1.0%.
US and European government bond markets
At the end of February, the United States and Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran. During the attacks, a significant portion of Iran’s political and military leadership was eliminated, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The new Iranian leadership subsequently partially or completely closed the Strait of Hormuz to the United States and its allies, causing serious disruptions to the global energy supply and international trade. The initial phase of the conflict was characterized by a classic “flight to safety” reaction, with investors turning to U.S. government securities. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, however, market focus shifted to inflation risks arising from rising oil and gas prices, which led to rising yields in the United States and other developed markets for the remainder of the month. The conflict had a particularly adverse impact on countries heavily dependent on energy imports.
As a result of rising inflation expectations, market expectations regarding the monetary policy path also shifted significantly. In the United States, the market effectively priced out the previously expected interest rate cuts, while in the eurozone, by the end of the month, the market was pricing in nearly three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the end of the year. Both the Fed and the European Central Bank left their benchmark interest rates unchanged during the month; however, several members of the ECB Governing Council indicated that they may be ready to raise rates as early as the April meeting, should the macroeconomic environment warrant it.
Monthly report on stock markets
2026. April
Domestic and Central-Eastern European stock markets
In April, the CETOP index, which covers Central and Eastern European stock markets, rose by 6.8%, thereby recovering from the previous month’s decline and reinforcing its strong performance this year, though it lagged somewhat behind the returns of the German DAX and the U.S. S&P 500. Every market in the region closed the month in positive territory, though significant differences emerged between individual countries. During the month of parliamentary elections, the Hungarian stock market performed exceptionally well: the BUX rose by 10.2%, while the Austrian ATX index showed a 9.9% increase. The Polish WIG20 gained 4.5%, while the Czech PX and Romanian BET indices posted more moderate gains of 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively, after accounting for dividends.
Among domestic blue chips, the share prices of OTP, Richter, and Magyar Telekom all rose by more than 10%, while MOL remained among this year’s top performers despite a 4.6% increase. Bank stocks also proved strong at the regional level, supported by generally favorable fundamental data released during earnings season.
Global emerging stock markets
In April, markets shook off the fears of March after the U.S.-Iran conflict did not escalate further. For now, the destruction of energy infrastructure—which would have had irreversible and lasting consequences—has been averted, and although the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened, events are pointing toward a resolution. The Taiwanese and, in particular, South Korean markets, as the main beneficiaries of AI infrastructure development, are showing massive earnings growth, with stock prices striving to keep pace. The forint strengthened significantly thanks to the elections, appreciating by 6.9% against the dollar over the month, which weighed on performance measured in forints. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which represents the emerging market asset class, appreciated by 14.71% in dollar terms; however, this translated to a 6.84% increase when calculated in forint. The South Korean market performed the best (+28.15%), but the Taiwanese stock market also outperformed (+18.09%). Meanwhile, the oil-importing Indonesian market lagged behind (-14.09%), and the South African (-5.38%) and Mexican (-4.68%) stock exchanges also performed poorly.
Developed stock markets
The U.S. market saw an exceptionally strong earnings season, but price reactions remained subdued, pointing to increasing
selectivity. The index’s performance was driven primarily by technology mega-cap and hyperscaler companies, alongside further
growth in AI investments. The European equity market was shaped by the earnings season and volatility in the energy market.
Results were slightly positive overall, mostly in line with expectations, while significant sectoral divergences remained.
Banks and energy companies delivered stable results, while the consumer sector struggled with weak demand and shrinking margins.
Semiconductor and AI-related sectors showed relative strength. Market reactions remained asymmetric: negative surprises were
heavily punished, while positive ones were rewarded only modestly.
The best-performing sectors during the period were technology, industrials, and consumer cyclicals, while the weakest performance
came from shares of companies in the energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors.
Monthly report on commodity markets
2026. April
Global commodity markets
In April, commodity markets remained heavily news-driven, with investors primarily pricing in geopolitical and macroeconomic risks related to the conflict in Iran. Oil prices fell at the beginning of the month on news of a ceasefire, but due to its fragility and the prospect of a U.S. blockade, prices rose again from the middle of the month. In the U.S. natural gas market, mild weather and rising inventories pushed prices lower in the first half of the month, while speculative positions shifted toward short positions. At the end of the month, colder weather forecasts and lower inventory levels led to price increases.
In the precious metals market, geopolitical news initially supported prices, but then the strengthening dollar and diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts put pressure on gold and silver. Copper prices were initially supported by Chinese demand and supply constraints, but weaker industrial outlooks later triggered a correction. In agricultural markets, wheat rose to a 1.5-year high due to the U.S. drought, which also pulled corn prices higher, while high fertilizer prices pose a risk to crop yields.
We would like to draw the attention of our esteemed readers and interested parties to the fact that this information contains data that was current and available on the date of its preparation, and does not constitute investment advice.
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