Monthly Securities Market Summary
What happened in the securities markets? – 2026 September
Monthly report on government securities markets
2026. September
Domestic government securities market
The macroeconomic data for September painted a generally favourable picture. Inflation rose to 1.6 per cent from 1.3 per cent in August, but remained well below the MNB’s 3 per cent target. Second-quarter GDP grew by 1.7 per cent year-on-year, whilst industrial production in August expanded by 8.7 per cent, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.7 per cent.
In September, the MNB kept the base rate at 5.5 per cent, bringing the previous cycle of rate cuts to an end. The decision was primarily driven by a less favourable global yield environment, rising energy prices and fiscal uncertainty. At the same time, the central bank also sent out longer-term signals: it will lower its inflation target to 2.5 per cent from 2028, and plans to hold eight interest rate-setting meetings a year.
The fiscal situation remained mixed. The 2026 deficit target was raised to 7.5 per cent of GDP, whilst the State Treasury (ÁKK) increased its financing plan to 20.4 thousand billion forints. Investors’ attention increasingly focused on the 2027 budget, due in October, which will be a key test of fiscal credibility.
Despite favourable inflation figures, Hungarian government bond yields rose: the 5-year yield rose to 5.87 per cent and the 10-year yield to 5.77 per cent. The forint remained stable overall. News regarding the MNB’s interest rate policy and the reduction of its inflation target led to a temporary strengthening, but towards the end of the month the currency weakened somewhat due to global risk aversion. In the wake of measures supporting convergence, an increasing number of people are anticipating the introduction of the euro around 2031–2032. The RMAX index posted a return of 0.39 per cent in September, whilst the MAX index recorded a return of -0.79 per cent.
US and European government bond markets
In September, global bond markets were shaped by rising energy prices, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and central banks’ continued focus on combating inflation. Higher oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, leading to rising government bond yields worldwide and expectations of a tighter interest rate path. Overall, the quarter proved to be one of the weakest periods for developed bond markets.
The U.S. bond market was at the center of the sell-off. In September, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, while policymakers left the door open for further tightening. The market began to price in nearly 100 basis points of additional rate hikes for the coming year. Rising energy prices, a deteriorating fiscal outlook, and a widening term premium all contributed to the rise in yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose from 4.80% to 5.29%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
In the eurozone, the ECB also raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while inflation accelerated to 3.8%. In France, the deteriorating fiscal situation and political uncertainty pushed up yield spreads, while the yield on the 10-year German Bund rose to 3.59%.
In the United Kingdom, the central bank warned of the possibility of further tightening even as it kept interest rates unchanged. In Japan, the BoJ’s rate hike and the unwinding of yen-based carry trades also contributed to the global rise in yields and the deterioration of sentiment in the bond market.
Monthly report on stock markets
2026. September
Domestic and Central-Eastern European stock markets
In September, regional stock markets as a whole underwent a correction following this year’s strong rally, though significant performance disparities emerged among individual markets. The Polish stock market performed the best, with the WIG20 index rising by nearly 4.5%. This positive performance was driven primarily by the banking sector and utility companies. LPP, the owner of the Sinsay brand, stood out, rising nearly 20% thanks to its strong quarterly results and improving profitability.
The Austrian market also had a positive month, with the ATX index rising 1.3%, a gain significantly driven by AT&S’s share price increase of more than 30%. In contrast, the Romanian stock market underperformed, with the BET index losing 7.7% of its value. Investor sentiment continued to be weighed down by uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government, although reform efforts related to EU funds progressed more favorably than expected.
The Hungarian market also ended the month in negative territory, with the BUX index falling by nearly 2.7%. The decline was primarily attributable to the weaker performance of OTP Bank and Richter. OTP’s share price continued to face pressure from uncertainties regarding the future of its subsidiary bank in Russia.
The macroeconomic picture in the region remained mixed. In Poland, inflation came in higher than expected, at around 4%, while more moderate price dynamics were observed in Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Global emerging stock markets
In September 2026, global capital markets were primarily shaped by the energy market shock, mounting inflation risks, and central banks’ tight monetary policies.
Emerging markets posted mixed results. Asian stock markets continued to be supported by strong earnings from technology companies related to artificial intelligence, as well as infrastructure developments. In China, however, weak domestic demand and subdued investment activity continued to hold back the economy, although exports and the high-tech manufacturing sector proved relatively resilient.
Among the smaller emerging markets, Brazil performed well as investors began to price in the possibility of a more market-friendly political shift. In Turkey, by contrast, stricter enforcement by the capital markets regulator and efforts to curb market abuse had a temporary negative impact on the stock market.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, denominated in U.S. dollars, fell by 0.56% in September; however, due to the significant strengthening of the dollar, it rose by 2.1% when measured in Hungarian forints. The Taiwanese (+6.4%), South Korean (+5.1%), and Brazilian (+5.8%) markets performed the best, driven primarily by the technology sector. In contrast, the South African, Turkish, Indonesian, Indian, and Chinese stock markets posted negative returns, which clearly reflected the deterioration in global investor sentiment and growing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Developed stock markets
In September, stock markets were buoyed by strong corporate earnings and the AI investment cycle, while rising bond yields and energy prices tempered the rise in valuations. In the U.S. market, the S&P 500 continued to trade near its all-time high, with technology and AI infrastructure companies driving the bulk of earnings growth. The higher-yield environment favored the financial sector, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors underperformed. In Europe, improving German macroeconomic data, picking-up investment activity, and strong earnings outlooks for defense, technology, and industrial companies supported the market. In both regions, performance was concentrated in a narrower group of growth stocks, while traditional cyclical sectors—particularly the automotive industry and certain consumer sectors-showed more moderate earnings growth.
The best-performing sectors during the period were technology and healthcare, while the weakest performers were stocks in the non-cyclical consumer goods, materials, and real estate sectors. The MSCI World Index fell by -1.19% (rose by 1.45% in forint), the S&P 500 fell by -0.45% (rose by 2.21% in forint), the Nasdaq rose 3.23% (up 5.99% in forint), the DAX fell 4.03% (down 3.47% in forint), the EURO STOXX 50 fell 2.35% (down 1.78% in forint), the FTSE 100 fell by 2.02% (down 0.08% in forint), and Japan’s TOPIX fell by 1.15% (up 3.29% in forint) in its own currency during the period.
Monthly report on commodity markets
2026. September
Global commodity markets
In September, commodity markets were driven primarily by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about energy supplies. Oil prices rose in response to attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and risks affecting regional infrastructure, as the market priced in a narrowing of shipping routes. However, the rise was tempered by the gradual normalization of shipping traffic and news of the partial restart of the Saudi bypass pipeline, which eased supply fears.
U.S. natural gas prices remained under pressure due to near-record production and expectations of milder winter weather. At the end of the month, a major pipeline failure caused a temporary price spike, but prices corrected lower following a swift restoration.
In the precious metals market, the performance of gold and silver was constrained by high bond yields and tighter financial conditions.
Copper prices rose to near-record levels early in the month due to expectations regarding U.S. tariffs and tight supply. Later, news of a delay in the tariff measures triggered a correction, while developments related to mines in Chile and Panama continued to cause uncertainty.
In the agricultural commodities market, grains weakened following gains at the beginning of the month; soybeans temporarily rose to a multi-year high due to a pickup in Chinese demand, while cocoa prices fell. Sugar prices were once again supported at the end of the month by crop risks caused by El Niño and unfavorable weather forecasts.
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