Monthly Securities Market Summary
What happened in the securities markets? – 2026 February
Monthly report on government securities markets
2026. February
Domestic government securities market
Annual inflation slowed to 2.1% in January from 3.3% in December, while monthly inflation rose to 0.3% from 0.1% in the previous month. Core inflation also moderated significantly to 2.67%. Industrial production volume fell by 1.1% year-on-year in December, but rose slightly compared to the previous month.
On February 24, the Monetary Council cut the base rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. At a press conference following the decision, Mihály Varga highlighted the favorable inflation trend, but emphasized that the central bank had not started a cycle of interest rate cuts and would continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data. The forint reacted positively to this and strengthened to 376.5 against the euro by the end of the month, which was also due to the market's favorable reception of Medián's survey at the end of February, according to which the Tisza Party leads by 11 percentage points among certain voters. The yield curve flattened in February as well: at the beginning of February, the yield on 10-year Hungarian government bonds was 6.54%, which declined to 6.4% by the end of the month. Demand for Hungarian government securities remained high during the month. On February 19, the ÁKK held an auction of 3-, 5- and 10-year government securities, raising HUF 160 billion instead of the planned HUF 70 billion. The MAX index gained 1.12% and the RMAX 0.53% during the month.
US and European government bond markets
In January, geopolitical tensions became the focus of investors. US military action in Venezuela, threats from Iran, disputes over Greenland, fluctuations in commodity prices and the surge in gold prices, as well as the weakening of the dollar.
Following the Fed's meeting on January 28, the FOMC decided to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50-3.75%, interrupting three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts. Several commentators pointed out that inflation remains high, the labor market is stable, and the decision was motivated by the Fed's desire to take a wait-and-see approach while studying macroeconomic indicators. The 10-year yield rose to 4.23% by the end of the month, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.52%. Overall, US yield levels rose during the month. On January 30, Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. As a result, US yields rose and the dollar strengthened.
On January 25, the ECB left interest rates unchanged, while the euro strengthened to a four-year high against the dollar. According to central bank comments, the strong euro could lead to interest rate cuts, with the German 10-year yield moving slightly sideways during the month.
The BoJ left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75% and raised its GDP forecast to 0.9% for 2025 and 1% for 2026. Core inflation rose moderately, yields moved erratically, with daily jumps of 20-30 basis points, while the volatility of the yen increased. The USDJPY exchange rate rose to 159 during the month. The turning point came on January 23, when several sources reported that Japan would intervene in the currency market jointly with the United States. In response to the news, the yen began to strengthen rapidly, and the exchange rate fell to 152 within a few days.
Monthly report on stock markets
2026. February
Domestic and Central-Eastern European stock markets
After several months of steady growth, the regional stock market rally took a break in February, with the major stock indices representing the region as a whole falling slightly. This was only the third such period in the past 15 months. There was also a striking divergence in the performance of individual markets. The Romanian market had another strong month, with the BET index closing up 3.4%. This was followed by the Polish WIG20 index, which has the largest capitalization, with a 2.4% gain, but there were no complaints about the Austrian ATX index's 1.7% increase either. The results were less convincing for Hungarian (BUX index -1.8%) and Czech (PX index -4%) stocks. The oil and gas sector performed strongly, with 6-10% increases for larger-cap stocks (Orlen, OMV). Lagging behind the good performance of the latter group, MOL's share price fell by more than 10%. After a year and a half hiatus, the Hungarian central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Global emerging stock markets
The positive mood on the capital markets continued in February. For most of the month, AI investments and potential future applications dominated the mood: companies paying for investments were punished by investors, while the shares of companies implementing investments continued to rise. The business model of software service providers was increasingly questioned, with a series of new Anthropic model announcements providing negative news. By the end of February, fears of an escalating conflict in Iran came to the fore, and markets began to price in the possibility of military conflict. The MSCI Emerging Market Index, which represents emerging market stocks, rose 5.5% in dollar terms, but as the forint strengthened during the month, this represented a lower increase of 4.82% in local currency terms. The Korean (+21%) and Taiwanese (+12.4%) markets continued to soar, but the South African stock exchange also performed well (+9.3%). The Chinese market was the biggest loser, but the Indonesian, Turkish, and Indian markets also underperformed.
Developed stock markets
US companies delivered strong fourth-quarter results: S&P 500 EPS grew by 12%, supported by 7% revenue growth, rising margins, and a favorable macro environment. The "Magnificent 7" continued to drive the index, while cost management became increasingly important in corporate commentary. Profit expectations for 2026 were widely revised upward, particularly in the technology and cyclical sectors, although concerns about AI disruption remain. Hyperscaler companies once again announced larger-than-expected investment plans, which curbed share buybacks. In Europe, the Q4 earnings season brought positive surprises overall, but this was due to narrow sectoral outperformance, mainly in the financial sector. Investors are focusing more on medium-term sustainability and AI-driven competition rather than short-term earnings, and guidance has become particularly important. The US-Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February increased market volatility in both regions, particularly in cyclical and energy-intensive sectors.
Monthly report on commodity markets
2026. February
Global commodity markets
February was marked by escalating geopolitical tensions, volatile macroeconomic data, and trade uncertainty in the commodity markets. The conflict between the US and Iran had a strong impact on oil prices at the beginning of the month: diplomatic news caused volatility, and then the possibility of an expected US strike triggered an increase. In contrast, US natural gas prices fell steadily due to mild weather, high production, and abundant supplies. Precious metals moved extremely erratically: after falling in January, gold gradually strengthened due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, although strong labor market data caused a temporary correction. Silver remained volatile, while palladium and platinum prices were buffeted by tariff risks and uncertainty surrounding Russian imports. Copper made several attempts to regain its January highs, but was held back by high inventories and concerns about Chinese demand. Aluminum was driven by US smelter closures and supply risks. The soybean market was supported by rising soybean oil prices and Chinese buying expectations, while wheat rose due to short covering and a strengthening geopolitical situation.
We would like to draw the attention of our esteemed readers and interested parties to the fact that this information contains data that was current and available on the date of its preparation, and does not constitute investment advice.
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