Monthly report on stock markets

2026. July

Domestic and Central-Eastern European stock markets

The strong performance of regional equity markets continued in July. The CETOP index rose by 6.3 per cent, whilst the Romanian stock market posted a return of 11.7 per cent and the Polish WIG20 index recorded a return of 9.3 per cent. The Czech PX index rose by 5.6 per cent and the Hungarian BUX by 4.9 per cent over the course of the month.

Oil and gas companies performed best. In an oil market that was extremely volatile due to the conflict in the Middle East, the price of Brent crude fluctuated between $70 and $100, which continued to provide a favourable environment for the sector. Refining margins remained high, and companies’ flash reports painted a generally positive picture, whilst OMV also reported an improving outlook for its petrochemicals division. Accordingly, MOL shares rose by 22.4 per cent, Poland’s Orlen by 16.9 per cent, and Austria’s OMV by 14.5 per cent.

The banking sector presented a mixed picture. The WIGBANK index, which tracks Polish bank shares, rose by 6.9 per cent, whilst Erste Bank’s share price fell by 3.7 per cent. Among Hungarian blue chips, Magyar Telekom rose by 3.6 per cent and OTP by 1.9 per cent, whilst Richter closed the month with a 2.1 per cent decline. Regional macroeconomic trends were generally favourable. In Hungary, confidence indices rose to near multi-year highs, whilst inflation remained below 2 per cent. In Poland, retail turnover grew by 6.2 per cent year-on-year, whilst inflation stood at around 3 per cent, which continues to allow for substantial real wage growth. Among the region’s central banks, the MNB cut interest rates in July, reducing the base rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent.

Global emerging stock markets

In July, two main factors drove emerging market equities. One was the renewed escalation of the US–Iran conflict, which pushed the price of Brent crude above $100 due to US attacks and restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. By the end of the month, however, fears of further escalation had eased, which calmed the markets somewhat.

The other key event was the correction in shares linked to AI infrastructure. Although flash reports continued to indicate strong demand and favourable profit prospects, the previously extremely optimistic investor sentiment declined significantly. During the month, there was significant position-closing, mainly among Korean retail investors; however, this was followed by a sharp rebound at the end of the month.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 3.1 per cent in US dollars, which, due to the weakening of the forint, represented a decline of around 2 per cent when calculated in forints. The South Korean market performed the worst, falling by 16.8 per cent, whilst Taiwan fell by 4.2 per cent and Turkey by 1.9 per cent. In contrast, the Indonesian and Chinese stock markets performed exceptionally well, rising by 12.7 per cent and 10.2 per cent respectively.

Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, benefited from investors’ growing openness to AI-related software business models. The Brazilian market also had a strong month, rising by 7.4 per cent, supported by improving investor sentiment and a favourable commodities market environment.

Developed stock markets

The eurozone economy proved resilient despite higher energy prices and geopolitical risks: the German economy was buoyed primarily by exports, whilst Italy was supported by improving business and consumer confidence. Inflation rose once again, whilst defence and infrastructure investment continued to be key drivers of growth. European equity markets enjoyed a favourable earnings season, with profit growth spreading to an increasing number of sectors, particularly amongst technology, financial and industrial companies.

In the United States, economic growth moderated, whilst consumption and corporate investment remained stable. Inflationary pressures eased, whilst trade policy moves and tariff measures once again took centre stage in the markets. The flash results season delivered strong corporate earnings, with the majority of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations. Investment in artificial intelligence continues to be a key driver of growth, particularly in sectors linked to technology and infrastructure development, although expectations regarding returns have at times increased market volatility.

The best-performing sectors during the period were financials, energy and non-cyclical consumer goods, whilst technology and industrials were the weakest performers.

Monthly report on commodity markets

2026. July

Global commodity markets

Supply risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea had driven a significant risk premium into prices, which temporarily pushed the price of Brent crude above $100. By the end of the month, however, fears had eased after negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were back on the agenda. In the refined products market, diesel and gas oil performed the strongest, supported by attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, export restrictions and tighter capacity.

By contrast, sentiment in the US natural gas market remained subdued. High production, ample stocks and maintenance work affecting LNG exports offset the temporary demand effects caused by the weather. In the second half of the month, more favourable weather forecasts and high storage levels further weakened prices.

Among precious metals, gold showed a broadly sideways trend. Geopolitical uncertainty supported demand, whilst higher US yields and a stronger dollar limited any upward movement. Among industrial metals, copper was the best performer.

In the grain markets, US weather conditions and supply risks in the Black Sea region led to rising prices in the first half of the month, particularly for wheat. Later, more favourable production prospects and a correction in energy prices tempered prices. In the soft commodity markets, the focus remained on the effects of El Niño: cocoa and coffee were supported by supply uncertainties, whilst signs of a slowdown in demand were already emerging for cocoa.