Monthly Securities Market Summary
What happened in the securities markets? – 2026 June
Monthly report on government securities markets
2026. June
Domestic government securities market
In June, a significant rally unfolded in the Hungarian government securities market: the yield on 10-year government bonds fell from 5.40% to 5.03%, supported by favorable inflation data, an improving economic outlook, and growing investor confidence. First-quarter GDP grew by 1.7% year-over-year and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop. The main driver behind the decline in yields at the beginning of the month was inflation data that came in well below expectations: the consumer price index for May rose by only 1.8% year-over-year, falling below the lower limit of the MNB’s tolerance band. In response to the favorable data, expectations of an interest rate cut strengthened significantly, while investor sentiment was also bolstered by positive developments regarding the release of EU funds and the reaffirmation of plans to adopt the euro. In a key development of the month, the MNB cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 6.00%, resuming the previously paused rate-cutting cycle. The central bank significantly revised its inflation forecasts downward and left the door open for further easing. The environment of falling yields was also reflected in government securities auctions; however, the narrowing interest rate spread weakened the forint in the second half of the month. Overall, low inflation, renewed monetary easing, and improving risk sentiment created a favorable environment for the domestic bond market: the MAX index rose by 1.8% and the RMAX index by 0.53% in June.
US and European government bond markets
In June, international government bond markets were driven primarily by inflation risks, central bank communications, and geopolitical developments. In the United States, May’s PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, while strong labor market data heightened expectations of interest rate hikes. The highlight of the month was Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair: although interest rates remained unchanged, the communication struck a more hawkish tone than before, placing the fight against inflation at the forefront. Toward the end of the month, however, falling oil prices and optimism surrounding the Iranian ceasefire eased upward pressure on yields, so the 10-year U.S. yield remained essentially unchanged, closing near 4.47%. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike and rising fiscal risks dominated the market. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to a level not seen since 1995, while the government’s investment program also pushed long-term yields higher. In the second half of the month, domestic institutional demand and lower oil prices supported Japanese bonds. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England left its 3.75% base rate unchanged, but some policymakers expressed support for tightening monetary policy. At the same time, weakening PMI data and political uncertainty heightened growth risks, and the yield on the 10-year gilt closed at 4.76%. Overall, a tighter central bank stance was the dominant factor in the U.S. and Japanese markets, while weak growth prospects were the key driver in the United Kingdom.
Monthly report on stock markets
2026. June
Domestic and Central-Eastern European stock markets
In June, stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe continued to rise, although there were significant differences in performance among individual countries. The Polish WIG20 index fell by 1%, while the Romanian BET rose by more than 10%, making it the region’s best-performing market. The Austrian ATX rose 6%, the Hungarian BUX 3.9%, and the Czech PX 1.7%. The Romanian outperformance was likely driven primarily by a surge in demand from retail investors and pension funds. In Austria, the banking sector supported the market: Raiffeisen and Erste Bank both posted gains of over 13%, while AT&S rose nearly 50%. In Hungary, OTP led the market with a 10.5% gain, while MOL and Richter saw a slight correction. Polish stocks were held back by falling oil prices and weaker performance from several large companies. Meanwhile, inflation fears continued to ease: inflation slowed to 2.5% in Poland and 1.8% in Hungary. The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Czech National Bank decided on a 25-basis-point hike.
Global emerging stock markets
In June, emerging stock markets posted mixed results overall. AI-related technology companies continued to buoy market sentiment, but volatility increased following the previous significant rally, causing the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to decline by 1.4% in U.S. dollars. However, due to the weakening of the forint, domestic investors still saw a 0.8% gain. The geopolitical environment improved: the United States and Iran extended the ceasefire, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, significantly reducing risks in the energy market. As a result, oil prices fell by nearly 19%. At the same time, markets were held back by the hawkish tone of the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, which led to a strengthening of the dollar. Regionally, technology markets continued to perform well: Taiwan rose 4.1% and South Korea 2.9%. India closed up 4%, while China remained weak (-5%). The Indonesian market fell 7.1%, but Turkish stocks rose 3.5% thanks to lower oil prices.
Developed stock markets
Corporate investment in Europe remains strong, driven primarily by AI, the energy transition, infrastructure, and defense spending. At the same time, the stock market is being held back by slowing growth, high energy prices and interest rates, and weaker exposure to the technology sector. An easing of tensions in the Middle East and declining inflation expectations could alleviate the pressure on corporate margins, but profitability remains a key concern. In the U.S., the rise of the S&P 500 is primarily driven by near-record corporate profitability and earnings expectations related to AI. Technology companies and chipmakers are currently benefiting significantly from the wave of AI investment, but the market’s future increasingly depends on the returns these massive investments will generate. The stock market continues to be supported by strong fundamentals, but the key question for the coming years will be the sustainability of the profits generated by AI. During this period, the best-performing sectors were healthcare, industrials, and financials, while stocks in the technology, energy, and communications sectors posted the weakest performance.
Monthly report on commodity markets
2026. June
Global commodity markets
In June, the dramatic turnaround in oil prices was the defining event on the commodity markets. The price of Brent fell from nearly $100 at the beginning of the month to $70, as the market increasingly priced in the U.S.-Iran interim agreement and the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This significantly reduced the risk of a prolonged supply shock, while weaker Chinese oil imports and the IEA’s downward revision to its demand forecast also put pressure on prices. In contrast, the situation in the natural gas market remained volatile, primarily due to LNG shipping routes and U.S. inventory data. Precious metals corrected after stronger U.S. labor market data triggered rising yields and expectations of Fed tightening, although gold may continue to be supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. Copper’s fundamentals remained favorable due to AI data centers, network upgrades, and renewable energy investments, but a stronger dollar and concerns over Chinese demand held prices back. Among agricultural commodities, corn weakened the most due to higher inventory and planted area estimates, while cocoa and coffee prices were supported by weather and supply risks.
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